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Lion OS for iPad will upgraded by Tablet Buyers

A report by Forrester Research analyst Sarah Rotman Epps predicts tablet sales will "grow as fast as MP3 players," more than doubling to 24 million this year and reaching 44 million by 2015. "Of those sales, the lion's share will be Apple iPads, and despite many would-be competitors that will be released at CES, we see Apple commanding the vast majority of the tablet market through 2012."

Tablet users will increase even faster, hitting 82.1 million by 2015, the report projects. In explaining this predicted phenomenon, the report states that "one major assumption that changed in our model is the replacement rate, which we think will be closer to that of MP3 players or iPhones than to that of PCs." The report states that "tablets are proving to be 'lifestyle devices' at home and at work, and as such we think consumers will upgrade to newer models more rapidly than they would a more utilitarian device like a PC."

The report added, "we think a significant number of first-generation iPad buyers will buy iPad 2 when it comes out this year - many first-gen iPads will end up entertaining the kids in the back of the car while Mom and Dad get the shiny new model." If current buyers are really going to be snatching up every new model (much like many early iPod and iPhone adopters did), it would seem like the number of tablet buyers should be closer to the number of tablets being sold, not twice as much as modeled by Forrester.

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